Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?
Current price
1.4¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.4%
$225.5K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide an exact list of nine municipalities on the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) interactive map that must be shaded simultaneously under specific qualifying layers, with a designated persistence requirement of one full daily update cycle. However, some interpretive risk remains because the rules permit minor boundary mismatch tolerances where tiny unshaded slivers along municipality borders may still count, and temporary glitches are excluded without an objective metric. Additionally, there is an exceptional clause excluding territorial control acquired via negotiated settlements or de jure agreements rather than military conquest, which requires external judgment to separate military advances from diplomatic handovers.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia militarily captures the entirety of Donetsk Oblast between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Donetsk Oblast will be considered captured when the entirety of the below-specified municipalities is simultaneously shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The relevant municipalities in Donetsk Oblast that must be simultaneously captured in their entirety are: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Pokrovsk, Dobropillia, Oleksandrivka, Cherkaske, and Sviatohirsk. The boundaries of each municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. If all area within a municipality is shaded under a qualifying layer, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of unshaded area along the border of the municipality, this may still qualify. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will not qualify, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. Similarly, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Control must be established through military conquest. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Russia will militarily capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026. Resolution unusually depends on specific map shading across nine designated municipalities on the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map rather than political declarations or negotiated settlements.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Russia militarily captures all of Donetsk Oblast by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, as evidenced by the ISW map. Capture requires all nine specified municipalities (Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Pokrovsk, Dobropillia, Oleksandrivka, Cherkaske, and Sviatohirsk) to be simultaneously shaded under the 'Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain' or 'Assessed Russian Advances' layers. Shading under 'Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas' or 'Claimed Russian Territory' does not qualify, nor does control acquired via a negotiated settlement. The qualifying shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle; once met, subsequent loss of control is disregarded. The market resolves to No if these conditions are not met by the specified date. Resolution is determined primarily by the ISW Ukraine map, with DeepStateMap as a secondary fallback and a consensus of credible reporting as a tertiary fallback.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
ISW Ukraine map
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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