Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by September 30, 2027?
Current price
57.5¢
+0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 57.5%
$2.3K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify what constitutes a qualifying agreement, specifically excluding unilateral pauses, informal understandings, or localized and target-specific restrictions. However, resolution allows for determination via a consensus of credible reporting if joint official announcements are lacking, leaving room for interpretation if media accounts diverge on whether a deal constitutes an explicit, dated, mutually agreed suspension of military engagement across the entire conflict. Additionally, an agreement finalized before the deadline triggers a positive outcome even if the actual cessation of fighting is scheduled to take effect after the date.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Russia and Ukraine will reach a qualifying ceasefire agreement by September 30, 2027. It allows broader peace frameworks or humanitarian pauses if they include a dated commitment to stop fighting, even if the ceasefire takes effect after the deadline.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine is officially reached by September 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying agreements require a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement constituting a general pause in the conflict, officially announced by both countries or confirmed by credible reporting. Broader peace deals, truces, or humanitarian pauses qualify if they include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting, even if the pause takes effect after the deadline. Agreements limited to specific locations or targets, informal understandings, backchannel communications, de-escalation without an agreement, or unilateral pauses do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no such agreement is reached by the deadline. Official government information from Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting decide the outcome.
Key dates
- Ceasefire agreement deadline: — Market resolves by 11:59 PM ET on this date
Resolution source
Official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting
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