Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2027?
Current price
54¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 54%
$1.8K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly outline what constitutes a qualifying ceasefire, requiring an explicit, dated commitment to suspend direct military engagement across the entire conflict rather than localized or category-specific pauses. An agreement reached before the deadline qualifies even if its effective implementation date falls later. However, resolution allows determination via a consensus of credible reporting if official government announcements are absent or contested, leaving judgment to market operators to evaluate reporting across outlets. Participants should also note that informal understandings, unilateral pauses, or frameworks solely outlining future talks do not qualify.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Russia and Ukraine reach a general ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2027. It allows broader deals like truces or peace agreements to qualify as long as they include an explicit commitment to halt fighting, even if the ceasefire takes effect after the deadline.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Russia and Ukraine reach a mutually agreed ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying agreements must constitute a general pause in direct military engagement with an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting. Broader peace deals, truces, or humanitarian pauses count if they include this commitment, and the market resolves to Yes even if the ceasefire takes effect after the deadline. Unilateral pauses, informal understandings, backchannel communications, or location- or target-specific restrictions do not count. The market resolves to No if no qualifying agreement is reached by the deadline. The resolution is decided using official announcements from the governments of Russia and Ukraine or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Market deadline: — Agreement must be reached by 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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