Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2027?
Current price
7¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 7%
$1.2K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules establish an objective primary source in the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) interactive map and list specific municipalities required to be shaded under designated layers. However, several clauses introduce discretion and potential edge cases. First, a subjective allowance exists where a tiny amount of unshaded area along a municipality border may still qualify if shading does not precisely match the boundary. Second, the rule requires control to be established via military conquest rather than a negotiated settlement, which could require the resolver to interpret the political mechanism behind territorial changes. Finally, fallback provisions allow switching to DeepStateMap or a consensus of credible reporting if the primary source becomes permanently unavailable.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia militarily captures the entirety of Donetsk Oblast between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Donetsk Oblast will be considered captured when the entirety of the below-specified municipalities is simultaneously shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The relevant municipalities in Donetsk Oblast that must be simultaneously captured in their entirety are: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Pokrovsk, Dobropillia, Oleksandrivka, Cherkaske, and Sviatohirsk. The boundaries of each municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. If all area within a municipality is shaded under a qualifying layer, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of unshaded area along the border of the municipality, this may still qualify. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will not qualify, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. Similarly, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Control must be established through military conquest. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Russia militarily captures all specified municipalities across Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2027, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the entirety of nine specified municipalities (Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Pokrovsk, Dobropillia, Oleksandrivka, Cherkaske, and Sviatohirsk) is simultaneously shaded under qualifying ISW layers ('Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain' or 'Assessed Russian Advances') by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The control must be established through military conquest; negotiated settlements or de jure transfers do not qualify. Infiltration areas and claimed territory layers do not qualify. Shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. Once the condition is met, subsequent loss of control is disregarded. The market resolves to No if these conditions are not met by the specified date. Resolution is determined by the ISW map, falling back to DeepStateMap if ISW is unavailable, or a consensus of credible reporting if both are permanently unavailable.
Key dates
- Resolution cutoff date: — Russia must capture all specified municipalities by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine map
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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