EVENT · 6 OUTCOMES
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
+1 more outcomesView event →
Markets
135 live Polymarket markets in 86 events- MedGotchaBIG MOVE · ▼ 22 PTS
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 3 MEDIUMResolverWordingExceptions65¢−14.5¢ 24hWHY IT MOVED · NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCENot enough evidence for a likely driver yet. - EVENT · 4 OUTCOMES
Israel Election: Likud # of seats?
Change in points, 24hView event → - EVENT · 3 OUTCOMES
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?
Change in points, 24hView event →No Hormuz Agreement · 7 daysRange 86–97% - EVENT · 3 OUTCOMES
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?
Change in points, 24hView event →No Hormuz Agreement · 7 daysRange 80–95% - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
Change in points, 24hView event →November 2 · Since Oct 17Range 5–19% - MedGotcha
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMWording12¢−1.5¢ 7d7 daysRange 4.5–14.5¢ - EVENT · 8 OUTCOMES
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Flávio Bolsonaro <4%40%▲ 3Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%28%▼ 2Lula da Silva <4%21%▲ 2Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12%10%▲ 1Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+3%±0+3 more outcomesView event → - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
Israeli Legislative Election Winner
Change in points, 24hView event →Yashar · 7 daysRange 49–75% - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
Alaska Senate Election Margin of Victory (First Round)
Change in points, 24hView event →Peltola 3-6% · Since Oct 18Range 30–36% - EVENT · 15 OUTCOMES
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Benjamin Netanyahu28%▼ 4Naftali Bennett14%▼ 1Avigdor Lieberman3%▲ 1Itamar Ben Gvir<1%±0Ofer Winter<1%±0+10 more outcomesView event → - MedGotcha
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 2 MEDIUMResolverWordingExceptions7.5¢+1¢ 7d7 daysRange 5.5–12.5¢ - MedGotcha
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 4 MEDIUMResolverTimingWording+14.85¢−1.65¢ 7d7 daysRange 3.05–9¢ - MedGotcha
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMResolverExceptions4.55¢+4.05¢ 7d7 daysRange 0.5–4.9¢ - EVENT · 3 OUTCOMES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Change in points, 24hView event →October 21 · Since Oct 17Range 91–98% - MedGotcha
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 3 MEDIUMResolverTimingExceptions21.5¢−3.5¢ 7d7 daysRange 21.5–25.5¢ - EVENT · 3 OUTCOMES
Georgia Governor Election Margin of Victory (First Round)
Change in points, 24hView event →Jackson 0-3% · Since Oct 18Range 25–28% - MedGotcha
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 3 MEDIUMResolverTimingWording1.55¢+0.25¢ 7d7 daysRange 0.55–1.8¢ - MedGotcha
Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMResolverWording0.25¢−0.35¢ 7d7 daysRange 0.25–1.05¢ - MedGotcha
Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMExceptionsResolver4.5¢−4¢ 7d7 daysRange 4.5–9.5¢ - MedGotcha
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by at least 40%?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 2 MEDIUMExceptionsResolverWording10.7¢+2.6¢ since 00:56 UTCSince 00:56 UTCRange 7.5–10.7¢ - MedGotcha
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 3 MEDIUMResolverWordingExceptions2.05¢−2.3¢ 7d7 daysRange 1.85–4.45¢ - MedGotcha
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMResolverExceptions95.5¢+16¢ 7d7 daysRange 79.5–95.5¢ - MedGotcha
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 4 MEDIUMResolverTimingWording+18¢−6¢ 7d7 daysRange 5.5–14.5¢ - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in October 2026?
Change in points, 24hView event →↓ $95 · Since 00:56 UTCRange 59–78% - MedGotcha
Will "Leave" win the Alberta independence referendum?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMExceptionsWording1.3¢−0.3¢ 7d7 daysRange 0.25–2.45¢ - EVENT · 4 OUTCOMES
Next Premier of British Columbia
Change in points, 24hView event → - MedGotcha
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGHExceptions15.5¢+1¢ since 00:56 UTCSince 00:56 UTCRange 14.5–15.5¢ - MedGotcha
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 2 MEDIUMResolverWordingExceptions0.8¢−0.65¢ 7d7 daysRange 0.45–1.45¢ - MedGotcha
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 2 MEDIUMResolverWording5.15¢−18.7¢ 7d7 daysRange 4.35–25.35¢ - MedGotcha
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMExceptionsResolver20.5¢−1.5¢ since Oct 16Since Oct 16Range 20.5–22¢ - MedGotcha
Will AS Roma vs. ŠK Slovan Bratislava end in a draw?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGHExceptions10.5¢+1¢ since Oct 16Since Oct 16Range 9.5–13.5¢ - MedGotcha
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 2 MEDIUMResolverWording0.55¢−1.35¢ 7d7 daysRange 0.55–1.9¢ - MedGotcha
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 2 MEDIUMResolverWording0.95¢−0.1¢ 7d7 daysRange 0.75–1.45¢ - MedGotcha
Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMExceptions7¢−0.5¢ 7d7 daysRange 6.5–10¢ - MedGotcha
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 2 MEDIUMResolverWording1.35¢−1.15¢ 7d7 daysRange 1.15–3.6¢ - EVENT · 3 OUTCOMES
Maine Senate Election Margin of Victory (First Round)
Change in points, 24hView event →Jackson 3-6% · Since Oct 17Range 27–33% - MedGotcha
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 23?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 2 MEDIUMResolverWordingExceptions75¢+19.5¢ 7d7 daysRange 55.5–79.5¢ - MedGotcha
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 3 MEDIUMResolverWordingExceptions2.4¢−1.25¢ since Oct 16Since Oct 16Range 2.3–3.7¢ - MedGotcha
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 3 MEDIUMResolverTimingWording+11.25¢−2.1¢ 7d7 daysRange 1.25–3.35¢ - MedGotcha
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 2 MEDIUMExceptionsResolverWording27¢+0.5¢ since Oct 16Since Oct 16Range 25.5–27.5¢ - MedGotcha
Will Manchester City FC vs. AEK end in a draw?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGHExceptions8.5¢+3¢ since Oct 16Since Oct 16Range 5.5–8.5¢ - MedGotcha
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 3 MEDIUMResolverWordingExceptions5.3¢−1.55¢ 7d7 daysRange 3.75–7.05¢ - EVENT · 4 OUTCOMES
Next Senate Majority Leader?
Change in points, 24hView event → - MedGotcha
Will FC Porto vs. PSV end in a draw?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMExceptionsTiming20.5¢±0¢ since 00:56 UTCSince 00:56 UTCFlat at 20.5¢ - MedGotcha
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-17 House seat?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMResolver60.5¢±0¢ 7d7 daysRange 58.5–60.5¢ - MedGotcha
Will SSC Napoli vs. FK Bodø/Glimt end in a draw?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGHExceptions21.5¢±0¢ since 00:56 UTCSince 00:56 UTCFlat at 21.5¢ - MedGotcha
Will VfB Stuttgart vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGHExceptions25.5¢±0¢ since 00:56 UTCSince 00:56 UTCFlat at 25.5¢