Will Patty Murray be the next Senate Majority Leader?
Current price
1.6¢
−0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.6%
$5.9K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules do not specify an official authority or designated reporting outlet for what constitutes an announcement of the Senate Majority Leader, leaving room for interpretation regarding whether a caucus election, press release, or media projection qualifies. Additionally, the market explicitly states it will remain open until January 3, 2027, even though internal party leadership votes typically take place in November or December following the general election. If control of the chamber or the leadership selection is contested and remains unresolved past January 3, the rules provide an extended fallback date of June 30, 2027, before resolving to Other.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual who is announced as the next Senate Majority Leader after the November 3, 2026, U.S. General Election. This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, at which point it will resolve based on the first announcement of the next Senate Majority Leader from whichever party holds the majority in the U.S. Senate. If no Majority is established and a leader is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Patty Murray will be announced as the next U.S. Senate Majority Leader following the November 2026 general election. The market's resolution is unusual because it specifies a deadline for the announcement and a fallback to 'Other' if no leader is announced by a certain date.
How it resolves
This market resolves Yes if Patty Murray is announced as the next Senate Majority Leader after the November 3, 2026, U.S. General Election. This market resolves No if someone other than Patty Murray is announced as the next Senate Majority Leader after the November 3, 2026, U.S. General Election. This market resolves Other if no Majority is established and a leader is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution is based on the first announcement of the next Senate Majority Leader from whichever party holds the majority in the U.S. Senate. The market will remain open until January 3, 2027, at which point it will resolve.
Key dates
- U.S. General Election:
- Market close:
- Resolution deadline for 'Other': — 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
No resolution source is identified in this explainer.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
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