Will "Leave" win the Alberta independence referendum?
Current price
0.25¢
−0.15¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.25%
$15.8K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules appear to be adapted from a multi-outcome margin-of-victory market, introducing conflicting resolution terms for a binary question. Specifically, the rules state that the market resolves according to margin brackets (such as assigning a tie to 'Remain <20%'), while also stating it resolves to 'Leave wins' if Leave gets more votes, and resolves to 'Other' if no referendum occurs before the deadline. Participants should be aware that the actual Question 10 is not a direct vote on immediate separation, but on whether to commence legal processes toward a binding referendum. Official results from Elections Alberta serve as the primary source, with an explicit delay mechanism to wait for official recount completions before resolving.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- High
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Alberta is scheduled to hold a provincial referendum on October 19, 2026. Question 10 asks: "Should Alberta remain a province in Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?" For the purposes of this market, "Remain" refers to the option that Alberta should remain a province in Canada, and "Leave" refers to the option that the Government of Alberta should commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on separation. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Remain" and "Leave" on Question 10. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Remain" and "Leave". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast on Question 10. If "Leave" receives more valid votes than "Remain", this market will resolve to "Leave wins". If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If "Remain" and "Leave" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to "Remain <20%". This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Alberta, including Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether "Leave" wins the Alberta independence referendum Question 10 scheduled for October 19, 2026, or the resulting margin bracket.
How it resolves
This market resolves to "Leave wins" if "Leave" receives more valid votes than "Remain" on Question 10. Otherwise, it resolves according to the margin of victory bracket for "Remain", with exact ties resolving to "Remain <20%" and values falling exactly between brackets resolving to the higher margin bracket. The market resolves to "Other" if no qualifying referendum occurs or if results are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Official results from the Government of Alberta, including Elections Alberta, decide the outcome, though an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount occurs before totals are official, resolution waits until the recount finishes.
Key dates
- Scheduled referendum date: — Date Alberta is scheduled to hold the provincial referendum.
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline by 11:59 PM ET for definitive results or the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Official results published by the Government of Alberta, including Elections Alberta, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
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