Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by at least 40%?
Current price
10.7¢
Implied probability 10.7%
$25.5K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market asks whether Iliana Iotova will win by at least 40%, but the resolution text borrows boilerplate language designed for a multi-option bracket market (referencing margin brackets and resolution to 'Other' under specific conditions like unresolved recounts or multi-way ties). Crucially, the rules define the margin of victory as the absolute difference between the first-place and second-place candidates' share of valid votes, rather than Iotova winning 40% of the overall vote. Official certification from Bulgaria's Central Election Commission serves as the primary benchmark, with fallback to reporting consensus if needed. Participants should note the detailed tie-breaking procedures based on alphabetical order of candidate surnames.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- High
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election is currently expected to be held on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the first round ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election as published by the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Централна избирателна комисия); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Iliana Iotova will win the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election by a margin of victory of at least 40% over the second-place candidate.
How it resolves
The market resolves based on the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round, calculated as the absolute difference between their percentages of total valid votes. The market resolves to Yes if Iliana Iotova finishes in first place with a margin of victory of at least 40% over the second-place finisher (or falls exactly on the threshold boundary). The market resolves to No if she does not win by at least 40%. The market resolves to Other if results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, or in specific tie scenarios involving unlisted candidates. The primary resolution source is the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria, with an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting also permitted.
Key dates
- Expected election date: — The first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election is expected to take place.
- Definitive result deadline: If results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Централна избирателна комисия)
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