Will Cory Booker be the next Senate Majority Leader?
Current price
1.7¢
−0.35¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.7%
$5.3K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The question asks who will be the next Senate Majority Leader, but the rules restrict resolution to whoever is announced after the November 3, 2026 general election, which would exclude any earlier leadership succession occurring before that date. Additionally, the rules reference resolving to 'Other' if no leader is announced by June 30, 2027, which indicates multiple-choice market mechanics despite the question being phrased as a binary outcome for Cory Booker. No specific official body, government registry, or consensus news source is specified for verifying the announcement.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual who is announced as the next Senate Majority Leader after the November 3, 2026, U.S. General Election. This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, at which point it will resolve based on the first announcement of the next Senate Majority Leader from whichever party holds the majority in the U.S. Senate. If no Majority is established and a leader is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Cory Booker is announced as the next U.S. Senate Majority Leader following the November 3, 2026, general election.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Cory Booker is the individual announced as the next Senate Majority Leader after the November 3, 2026, U.S. General Election by the party holding the Senate majority. The market resolves No if another individual is announced as the next Senate Majority Leader. The market resolves to Other if no majority is established and a leader is not announced by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is based on the first announcement of the next Senate Majority Leader from the party holding the majority in the U.S. Senate. The rules do not specify a deciding source.
Key dates
- U.S. General Election: — The election after which the next Senate Majority Leader announcement is tracked.
- Market open duration limit: — The market remains open until this date, when it resolves based on the first announcement.
- Resolution fallback deadline: — Deadline after which the market resolves to Other if no majority is established and no leader is announced.
Resolution source
No resolution source is identified in this explainer.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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