Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in October?
Current price
32.5¢
Implied probability 32.5%
$29.3K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market relies on an objective data feed from Pyth with a defined ICE fallback, precise trading session rules, and specific roll-over mechanics for determining the Active Month contract. However, there is a minor discrepancy between the title, which simply states October without specifying a year, and the rules, which explicitly restrict the evaluation window to October 2026. Additionally, the title refers to hitting a low of $90, which the rules clarify as any 1-minute candle having a final Low price equal to or below $90. As long as participants note the specific year and rollover timing rules, resolution is strictly formulaic.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of October 2026, any Pyth 1-minute candle for the Active Month of ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures (denoted by Pyth as "CLL") has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered (See: "Trading Hours" at https://www.ice.com/products/213/WTI-Crude-Futures). The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 8:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date, except for the session dated Monday, which begins at 6:00 PM ET on the preceding Sunday, and where modified by holiday or other special hours (See: https://www.ice.com/holiday-hours). The Active Month is the nearest listed contract, except during that contract's final three trading sessions. At the open of the third-to-last trading session, the next listed contract becomes the Active Month. Each contract's last trading day will be determined by ICE Futures Europe per the WTI Crude Futures contract specification (generally the 4th US business day prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract month, or five US business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a US business day). The last trading day for each contract is posted at https://www.ice.com/products/213/WTI-Crude-Futures/expiry. For example, if the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Monday the 20th, the next listed contract would become the Active Month at the start of the trading session for Thursday the 16th (8:00 PM ET on Wednesday), assuming a standard trading calendar. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil Futures contract by ICE Futures Europe may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session (See: https://www.ice.com/report/10 with "T-West Texas Intermediate Light Sweet Crude Future" selected). In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures Active Month "High" and "Low" prices available at https://app.pyth.com/explore?search=CLL, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Active Month of ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures reaches a low price of $90 or below during October 2026 trading sessions according to Pyth 1-minute candle data.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if any Pyth 1-minute candle for the Active Month of ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures (CLL) records a final Low price of $90.00 or lower during an applicable October 2026 trading session. Prices are evaluated without rounding and must occur during valid trading hours. The market resolves to No if no qualifying candle reaches $90.00 or lower, or if the Active Month contract does not trade during October 2026. The primary deciding source is Pyth 1-minute candle data for CLL. If Pyth data is unavailable due to an outage, official daily high/low prices from ICE Futures Europe serve as the fallback.
Key dates
- October 2026 Trading Sessions: The evaluation window covering all applicable trading sessions for October 2026.
Resolution source
Pyth (ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures Active Month feed, CLL)
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