Will Manchester City FC vs. AEK end in a draw?
Current price
7.5¢
+2¢ · 24h
Implied probability 7.5%
$5K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that resolution depends on the official match result after regular play and stoppage time, with a structured fallback sequence of named sports data providers. However, participants should be aware of a counterintuitive cancellation clause: if the match is canceled entirely without a rescheduled date, the market resolves to Yes rather than resolving as 50-50, voiding, or resolving to No. Additionally, if the match is postponed, the market remains open indefinitely until played, and an absence of data within 24 hours triggers an automatic 50-50 resolution.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- High
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
In the upcoming game, scheduled for October 20, 2026 If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Yes". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the football match between Manchester City FC and AEK will end in a draw within regular play and stoppage time. Notably, the market also resolves to Yes if the match is canceled entirely without a make-up game.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the match ends in a draw at the end of the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, or if the match is canceled entirely with no make-up game. It resolves to No if the match ends with either team winning within regular play plus stoppage time. If the game is postponed, the market stays open until it is completed. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the match's conclusion, it resolves 50-50 or to Draw. Resolution relies primarily on official statistics from the governing body or event organizers, falling back sequentially to Flashscore, Sofascore, and a consensus of credible reporting if needed. Subsequent revisions after market resolution are disregarded.
Key dates
- Scheduled match date: — The market remains open if the game is postponed.
Resolution source
Official statistics recognized by the governing body or event organizers, with fallbacks to Flashscore, Sofascore, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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