Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Current price
3¢
−0.7¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3%
$70.2K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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There is a mismatch in structure between the binary-style question and the multi-choice bracket resolution rules described in the text. The rules specify that the market resolves based on the change in the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate from the official Bank of Japan statement. A key clause to note is the rounding rule: any unlisted rate changes round up to the nearest 25 basis points (for instance, a 12.5 bps move counts as 25 bps). While the Bank of Japan website is the primary named authority, the decider also reserves the right to use a consensus of credible reporting. Resolution can occur as soon as the statement is published, with a fallback to 'No change' if no statement is released before the next scheduled meeting.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting. If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Bank of Japan increases the upper bound of its short-term policy interest rate by 25 basis points following its October 2026 monetary policy meeting. Non-standard rate changes are rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Bank of Japan raises the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate by 25 basis points compared to the level prior to the October 2026 meeting. Any rate change not matching a displayed option is rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points, meaning a 12.5 bps increase counts as 25 bps. The market resolves to No if the rate change is not 25 basis points after rounding, or if no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, which defaults resolution to No change. The primary resolution source is the official Bank of Japan website, with a consensus of credible reporting serving as an alternative.
Key dates
- Monetary Policy Statement release: — Scheduled release date of the Bank of Japan Statement on Monetary Policy for the October 2026 meeting
Resolution source
The official website of the Bank of Japan, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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