Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
Current price
1.5¢
−0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.5%
$391.1K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The market resolves based on whether a qualifying independence referendum passes by the end of 2026. The rules broaden the scope beyond full secession to include any vote establishing a desire or framework for independence, which leaves room for interpretation if a non-binding, consultative, or multi-topic question is posed. In addition, the resolution rules reference official provincial government information alongside a consensus of credible reporting without specifying a priority order or exact timezone for the December 31, 2026 deadline.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Alberta passes a referendum related to independence from Canada by the end of 2026. Qualifying votes include those establishing a desire for independence, establishing a framework for it, or directly establishing independence.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a qualifying referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM. A qualifying vote includes any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada. The market resolves to No if no such referendum passes by the deadline. Official information from the government of Alberta serves as the primary resolution source, alongside a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Referendum must pass by 11:59 PM on this date.
Resolution source
Official information from the government of Alberta, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.