Will the Republican Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Maine Senate election by 0%-3%?
Current price
19.5¢
Implied probability 19.5%
$1.9K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves using official certified vote totals from the Maine state electoral authority to calculate the margin between the top two candidates in the first round of voting. Participants should note several intricate mechanics: margin calculation uses the absolute difference in vote share relative to all valid votes cast, boundary values falling exactly between brackets resolve to the higher bracket, and complex alphabetical tie-breaking rules apply if candidates tie for first place. Additionally, while certified state figures are the primary authority, the rules allow fallback to an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Resolution may be delayed if a recount is initiated, with an ultimate cutoff date of June 30, 2027, resolving to Other if definitive results remain unavailable.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- High
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2026 first round of the Maine Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Maine Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party candidate wins the first round of the 2026 Maine Senate election by a margin of 0% to 3%.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Republican Party candidate receives the most valid votes in the first round of the 2026 Maine Senate election with a margin of victory between 0% and 3% over the second-place finisher. The margin is the absolute difference between the valid vote percentages of the top two candidates, divided by total valid votes. Values falling exactly between brackets resolve to the higher margin bracket. The market resolves to No if the Republican candidate does not win or wins with a margin outside 0% to 3%. In the case of a first-place tie involving listed candidates, alphabetical order of ballot-listed last names determines the winner resolving to the lowest margin bracket. If results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if a tie occurs between unlisted candidates, the market resolves to Other. The primary deciding source is the official certified results published by the responsible state electoral authority, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Expected election date: — Date the first round of the 2026 Maine Senate election is expected to take place.
- Resolution deadline: — Market resolves to Other if results are not known definitively by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
Official results published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the election results, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
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