Will Otzma Yehudit win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$15.7K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify how seats are attributed in the event of pre-election mergers, joint lists, and party splits, which are common in Israeli politics. Merged lists are attributed based on prior Knesset representation or alphabetical order unless specific exceptions apply. Resolution relies primarily on credible media consensus with an official fallback to Israel's Central Election Committee. A multi-step tie-breaker is defined, first by total valid votes received and then by alphabetical order. Readers should note that while the question is framed as a single-party binary query, the rules use multi-option market language referencing outcomes resolving to specific party options or Other if results are delayed past June 30, 2027.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose candidate list received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Israeli Knesset. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page). The following rules govern the merging, joint contention, and splitting of listed parties: - If Likud or Together (or any successor party created through a merger) merge with or contest the election jointly with any other party, the option corresponding to Likud or Together will represent the resultant candidate list or merged party. Otherwise: - If a listed party merges with, or contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with, one or more unlisted parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the listed party will represent all seats won by the merged party or joint candidate list. If a listed party merges with, or contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with, one or more other listed parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the party which held the most seats in the prior Knesset will represent all seats won by the merged party/joint candidate list. If these rules do not adequately determine which option represents a merged party or joint candidate list, the listed party whose name, as listed in this market, comes first in alphabetical order, will represent all seats won by the merged party or joint candidate list. - If a listed party splits into multiple parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the listed party will represent the resulting party that holds the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of the split. If these rules do not adequately determine which party represents a listed option after a split, the listed option will represent all seats won by the party resulting from the split whose primary English name comes first in alphabetical order.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Otzma Yehudit will win the most seats in the Israeli Knesset in the 2026 legislative election. It includes specific tiebreaking rules and provisions for political party mergers and splits.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Otzma Yehudit (or its qualifying merged list or split successor under the rules) wins the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset in the 2026 election. In the event of a tie for most seats, the party whose candidate list received more valid votes wins, followed by alphabetical order if still tied. The market resolves to No if another party or coalition wins the most seats. The market resolves to Other if results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided based on a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from Israel’s Central Elections Committee if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Expected election date: — Expected date for the Israeli legislative election.
- Resolution deadline: — Market resolves to Other if results are not definitively known by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
Israel’s Central Elections Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit)
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