Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
Current price
2.05¢
−0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.05%
$2.1M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution relies on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine or a consensus of credible reporting confirming a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement. The rules explicitly require a general pause across the conflict rather than localized ceasefires or restrictions on specific target categories, which may require subjective judgment if a partial or phased de-escalation deal is signed. Crucially, if an agreement with an explicit dated commitment to stop fighting is finalized before the deadline, the market resolves positively even if the ceasefire's effective date begins after the deadline passes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Russia and Ukraine reach an official ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026. A qualifying agreement must constitute a general pause in fighting rather than a localized or category-specific pause, and it qualifies upon being reached even if it takes effect after the deadline.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine is officially reached by October 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, and is either announced by both countries or confirmed by credible reporting. A broader peace deal, truce, or humanitarian pause qualifies if it includes a mutually agreed, dated commitment to suspend direct military engagement across the general conflict, even if it takes effect after the deadline. Unilateral pauses, informal understandings, or agreements limited to specific targets or locations do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no such agreement is reached by the deadline, or if an agreement only outlines future negotiations without an explicit, dated commitment to halt fighting. Official statements from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting decide the outcome.
Key dates
- Ceasefire agreement deadline: — Market resolves to Yes if reached by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
Official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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