Maine Senate Election Margin of Victory (First Round)

This event tracks the first-round margin of victory in the 2026 Maine Senate election. Individual markets measure whether a specific party's candidate wins within specific percentage ranges or brackets.

How the outcomes relate

The event is structured as a series of mutually exclusive margin brackets for winning candidates. Because the winning candidate and the absolute difference between the top two candidates fall into a single bracket, at most one market in this group can resolve Yes.

How it resolves

Each market resolves Yes if the specified candidate or party wins the first round and the margin of victory between the top two candidates falls into the specified percentage bracket. The margin of victory is the absolute difference between the percentages of total valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. If a value falls exactly between brackets, it resolves to the higher bracket. If results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other".

Key dates

• Expected Election Day: Nov 3, 2026 — The first round of the Maine Senate election is expected to be held on this date.
• Resolution Deadline: Jun 30, 2027 — If results are not known definitively by 11:59 PM ET on this date, the market resolves to "Other".

Resolution source

Official results published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the 2026 Maine Senate election, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 18 Oct 2026, 00:31 UTC