Will the Democratic Party win the NY-17 House seat?
Current price
60.5¢
+1.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 60.5%
$32.7K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This market resolves on the party of the winner of the NY-17 House seat in the 2026 midterms. Resolution initially relies on a consensus of credible reporting, which leaves some latitude to market deciders to interpret whether a consensus exists, but includes a formal fallback to official Federal Election Commission certified data if ambiguity arises. The rules clearly define how candidate party affiliation is handled, including explicit instructions for non-major-party candidates based on their stated caucus intent when all House races are called.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party candidate wins the U.S. House seat for New York's 17th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a ballot affiliation are assigned based on their stated intent to caucus.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the NY-17 congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or expressed intent to caucus when all 2026 House elections are called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with any other party. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission (FEC) results serving as the sole source if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- 2026 midterm elections: — The date the midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission (FEC) if ambiguous
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.