Will John Barrasso be the next Senate Majority Leader?
Current price
0.8¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.8%
$4.9K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules do not specify an official resolution source or standard for what constitutes an official announcement, leaving it to the decider to determine whether internal party caucus votes, public press releases, or official Senate floor proceedings count. While the question is framed as a binary inquiry about a specific individual, the rules state the market will resolve to the announced individual or to an 'Other' outcome if no majority or leader is established by June 30, 2027. Additionally, party leadership is typically selected weeks before the January 3, 2027 date mentioned in the rules, creating potential friction over when an outcome becomes official.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual who is announced as the next Senate Majority Leader after the November 3, 2026, U.S. General Election. This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, at which point it will resolve based on the first announcement of the next Senate Majority Leader from whichever party holds the majority in the U.S. Senate. If no Majority is established and a leader is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether John Barrasso is announced as the next Senate Majority Leader following the November 2026 U.S. General Election. The market has a specific resolution deadline and an 'Other' outcome if no leader is announced.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if John Barrasso is announced as the next Senate Majority Leader after the November 3, 2026, U.S. General Election. This announcement must be the first one made by the party holding the majority in the U.S. Senate. The market resolves No if someone other than John Barrasso is announced as the next Senate Majority Leader after the November 3, 2026, U.S. General Election. This announcement must be the first one made by the party holding the majority in the U.S. Senate. The market resolves to Other if no Majority is established and a leader is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution is based on the first announcement of the next Senate Majority Leader.
Key dates
- U.S. General Election:
- Market close:
- Other outcome deadline: — 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
No resolution source is identified in this explainer.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
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