Will Dallas Brodie be the next Premier of British Columbia?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$7.9K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The title asks if Dallas Brodie will be the 'next' Premier, but the rules specifically tie resolution to whoever is formally sworn in as Premier as a result of the 2026 British Columbia general election. If a leadership change occurs prior to that election, it will not count under these rules unless the person remains or is appointed following the 2026 vote. Additionally, the rules include a fallback resolution to 'Other' if no appointment occurs by June 30, 2027, which is a structural mismatch for a standard binary question about a specific person. Official government sources are preferred, but backup consensus reporting introduces minor interpretive discretion.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2026 British Columbia general election is currently scheduled to be held on October 24, 2026 to elect members of the Legislative Assembly of British Columbia. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of British Columbia as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of British Columbia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Dallas Brodie will be formally sworn in as the next Premier of British Columbia following the 2026 British Columbia general election.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Dallas Brodie is formally appointed and sworn in as Premier of British Columbia as a result of the 2026 general election. Interim or caretaker heads of government do not count. The market resolves No if another individual is formally appointed and sworn in as Premier following the election. The market resolves to Other if no Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined using official information from the Government of British Columbia or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Scheduled election date: — Date of the 2026 British Columbia general election
- Appointment cutoff date: — Resolves to Other if no Premier is appointed by 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of British Columbia or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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