Will David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia?
Current price
22¢
+1.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 22%
$96.7K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The title asks who will be the next Premier of British Columbia, but the text specifically binds resolution to the individual formally sworn in as Premier following the scheduled October 2026 general election. If a leadership change or early election occurs prior to that scheduled date, the title framing might mislead participants, as the rules only consider the outcome stemming from the 2026 election. Resolution relies primarily on official government confirmation with consensus media reporting as a secondary source, and an explicit fallback to Other is triggered if no Premier is sworn in by June 30, 2027.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2026 British Columbia general election is currently scheduled to be held on October 24, 2026 to elect members of the Legislative Assembly of British Columbia. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of British Columbia as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of British Columbia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether David Eby will be formally sworn in as the Premier of British Columbia following the scheduled 2026 British Columbia general election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to David Eby (or Yes) if he is formally appointed and sworn in as Premier of British Columbia as a result of the 2026 general election. Interim or caretaker heads of government do not count. The market resolves to another candidate (or No) if a different individual is formally sworn in as Premier following the election. The market resolves to Other if no Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined using official information from the Government of British Columbia, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Election date: — Scheduled date for the British Columbia general election.
- Resolution deadline: — Market resolves to Other if no Premier is appointed by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of British Columbia, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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