Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?
Current price
6.25¢
−3.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 6.25%
$205.8K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market defines control transfer in detail and includes a clear default to No if control is contested, unclear, or disputed by the deadline. However, determining whether a new entity has established primary military control versus temporary presence during conflict inherently requires qualitative judgment. Additionally, resolution depends on official military or government statements combined with a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single definitive authority, leaving room for interpretation if ground reports conflict.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Perim Island is no longer under Houthi control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “The Houthis” refers to the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including its governing institutions and any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. “Perim Island” refers to Perim (Mayyun) Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Yemen. “No longer under the control of the Houthis” means that the Houthis no longer exercise primary military control over Perim Island, and another state, occupying force, the internationally recognized government of Yemen, or an internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Houthi activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that the Houthis have lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Perim Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Houthis lose primary military control of Perim Island to another recognized entity or force by October 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Houthis no longer exercise primary military control over Perim Island and another state, occupying force, the internationally recognized government of Yemen, or an internationally backed authority establishes control by October 31 at 11:59 PM ET. Changes under agreements or settlements qualify only once actual control is established. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, offshore naval presence, or temporary disruptions do not qualify. Mere announcements or claims without actual control do not qualify. The market resolves to No if control remains with the Houthis, or if control is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the deadline. Resolution is determined by official statements from relevant governments and militaries, alongside a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Target resolution deadline: — Target date by 11:59 PM ET for the loss of Houthi control over Perim Island.
Resolution source
Official statements from relevant governments and militaries, alongside a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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