Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?
Last captured price
7.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 7.5%
$538.7K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution requires an official diplomatic agreement between Oman and Iran covering shipping or traffic in the Strait of Hormuz announced by the deadline. While criteria for qualifying agreements and declarative statements are detailed, whether public statements represent a binding or qualifying bilateral agreement rather than unilateral policy shifts or preliminary talks requires interpretive judgment. The market relies on official government statements backed by a consensus of credible reporting. If qualifying statements appear ambiguous at the deadline, a 14-day extension period is triggered to gather further confirmation or assess the totality of available information, potentially delaying final resolution.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between Oman and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between Oman and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian or Omani policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at managing, permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, including agreements defining vessel traffic corridors, fee collection policies, or other management policies. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement. Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement. Whether announcements from the listed countries represent a diplomatic agreement and whether such an agreement qualifies will be primarily determined through the announcements themselves. Where an announcement is made by all listed countries but, based on the announcements, it remains ambiguous whether the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the countries, this market will remain open until either i) definitive confirmation that the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the listed entities is achieved through further announcements from the listed countries or a consensus of credible reporting or ii) 14 calendar days (ET) have passed after the date that the last country made their first potentially qualifying announcement. If, at the end of the fourteenth calendar day, no definitive confirmation has been achieved, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Oman and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Oman and Iran announce a diplomatic agreement concerning vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz by October 31 at 11:59 PM ET.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if an official diplomatic agreement between Oman and Iran regarding vessel or shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is announced by October 31, 11:59 PM ET. Both countries must clearly and unambiguously announce acceptance of the same agreement through joint or separate declarative statements; references to ongoing negotiations or mere support do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no such qualifying agreement is announced by the deadline. If announcements are made but remain ambiguous, the market stays open for up to 14 calendar days after the last announcement to achieve definitive confirmation before resolving based on the totality of information. Resolution is decided using official information from the governments of Oman and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: October 31 at 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Official information from the governments of Oman and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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