EVENT · 6 OUTCOMES
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
+1 more outcomesView event →
Markets
109 live Polymarket markets in 72 events- MedGotchaBIG MOVE · ▼ 22 PTS
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 3 MEDIUMResolverWordingExceptions78.5¢−1¢ 24hWHY IT MOVED · NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCENot enough evidence for a likely driver yet. - EVENT · 4 OUTCOMES
Israel Election: Likud # of seats?
Change in points, 24hView event → - EVENT · 3 OUTCOMES
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?
Change in points, 24hView event →No Hormuz Agreement · 7 daysRange 86–97% - EVENT · 3 OUTCOMES
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?
Change in points, 24hView event →No Hormuz Agreement · 7 daysRange 80–95% - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
Change in points, 24hView event →November 2 · Since Oct 17Range 5–19% - MedGotcha
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMWording11.5¢−3¢ 7d7 daysRange 4.5–14.5¢ - MedGotcha
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 2 MEDIUMResolverExceptions73.5¢+25¢ 7d7 daysRange 48.5–74.5¢ - EVENT · 8 OUTCOMES
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Flávio Bolsonaro <4%47%▲ 7Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%25%▼ 6Lula da Silva <4%21%▲ 2Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12%6%▼ 3Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+3%▼ 1+3 more outcomesView event → - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
Alaska Senate Election Margin of Victory (First Round)
Change in points, 24hView event →Peltola 3-6% · Since Oct 18Range 30–36% - EVENT · 7 OUTCOMES
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Benjamin Netanyahu28%▼ 5Naftali Bennett14%±0Avigdor Lieberman3%±0Itamar Ben Gvir<1%±0Ofer Winter<1%±0+2 more outcomesView event → - MedGotcha
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 2 MEDIUMResolverWordingExceptions7.5¢+1¢ 7d7 daysRange 5.5–12.5¢ - MedGotcha
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 4 MEDIUMResolverTimingWording+14.85¢−1.65¢ 7d7 daysRange 3.05–9¢ - MedGotcha
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMResolverExceptions4.65¢+4.15¢ 7d7 daysRange 0.5–4.9¢ - EVENT · 3 OUTCOMES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Change in points, 24hView event →October 21 · Since Oct 17Range 91–98% - MedGotcha
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 3 MEDIUMResolverTimingExceptions21.5¢−4¢ 7d7 daysRange 21.5–25.5¢ - EVENT · 3 OUTCOMES
Georgia Governor Election Margin of Victory (First Round)
Change in points, 24hView event →Jackson 0-3% · Since Oct 18Range 25–28% - MedGotcha
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 3 MEDIUMResolverTimingWording1.5¢+0.1¢ 7d7 daysRange 0.55–1.8¢ - MedGotcha
Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMResolverWording0.25¢−0.35¢ 7d7 daysRange 0.25–1.05¢ - MedGotcha
Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMExceptionsResolver4.5¢−4¢ 7d7 daysRange 4.5–9.5¢ - MedGotcha
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 3 MEDIUMResolverWordingExceptions2.2¢−2.15¢ 7d7 daysRange 1.85–4.45¢ - MedGotcha
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMResolverExceptions95.5¢+16¢ 7d7 daysRange 79.5–95.5¢ - MedGotcha
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 4 MEDIUMResolverTimingWording+19¢−5¢ 7d7 daysRange 5.5–14.5¢ - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in October 2026?
Change in points, 24hView event →↓ $95 · Since 00:56 UTCRange 55–78% - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
Next Premier of British Columbia
Change in points, 24hView event →Lorne Doerkson · 7 daysRange 75–81% - MedGotcha
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGHExceptions15.5¢+1¢ since 00:56 UTCSince 00:56 UTCRange 14.5–15.5¢ - MedGotcha
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 2 MEDIUMResolverWordingExceptions1.1¢−0.35¢ 7d7 daysRange 0.45–1.45¢ - MedGotcha
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 2 MEDIUMResolverWording5.15¢−18.8¢ 7d7 daysRange 4.35–25.35¢ - MedGotcha
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 2 MEDIUMResolverWording0.55¢−0.55¢ 7d7 daysRange 0.55–1.55¢ - MedGotcha
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 2 MEDIUMResolverWording0.95¢−0.1¢ 7d7 daysRange 0.75–1.45¢ - MedGotcha
Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMExceptions8¢+0.5¢ 7d7 daysRange 6.5–10¢ - EVENT · 3 OUTCOMES
Maine Senate Election Margin of Victory (First Round)
Change in points, 24hView event →Jackson 3-6% · Since Oct 17Range 27–33% - MedGotcha
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 3 MEDIUMResolverWordingExceptions2.4¢−1.25¢ since Oct 16Since Oct 16Range 2.3–3.7¢ - MedGotcha
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 3 MEDIUMResolverTimingWording+11.25¢−2.1¢ 7d7 daysRange 1.25–3.35¢ - MedGotcha
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 2 MEDIUMExceptionsResolverWording27¢+0.5¢ since Oct 16Since Oct 16Range 25.5–27.5¢ - MedGotcha
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 3 MEDIUMResolverWordingExceptions5.3¢−1.55¢ 7d7 daysRange 3.75–7.05¢ - MedGotcha
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-17 House seat?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMResolver60.5¢±0¢ 7d7 daysRange 58.5–60.5¢ - MedGotcha
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by October 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMResolverWording2.85¢+2.2¢ since 00:56 UTCSince 00:56 UTCRange 0.65–4¢ - MedGotcha
Will there be no Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 4 MEDIUMResolverTimingWording+133.85¢+2.7¢ 7d7 daysRange 31.15–35.75¢ - MedGotcha
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Georgia Senate election by 12%-15%?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 3 MEDIUMResolverWordingExceptions15.5¢±0¢ since 00:56 UTCSince 00:56 UTCFlat at 15.5¢ - MedGotcha
Will the Democratic Party win the PA-16 House seat?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 2 MEDIUMResolverTiming3.9¢−1.1¢ 7d7 daysRange 3.55–6.05¢ - MedGotcha
Will FC Internazionale Milano vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk end in a draw?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGHExceptions11.5¢−1¢ since 00:56 UTCSince 00:56 UTCRange 11.5–12.5¢ - MedGotcha
Will the Democratic Party win the KY-06 House seat?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 2 MEDIUMResolverTiming34.5¢+1¢ 7d7 daysRange 32.5–34.5¢ - MedGotcha
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Viking FK end in a draw?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGHExceptions13.5¢−1¢ since 00:56 UTCSince 00:56 UTCRange 13.5–14.5¢ - MedGotcha
Will Como 1907 vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMExceptionsResolver25.5¢±0¢ since 00:56 UTCSince 00:56 UTCFlat at 25.5¢ - MedGotcha
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-41 House seat?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 2 MEDIUMResolverTiming95.75¢±0¢ since Oct 16Since Oct 16Range 95.35–96.05¢ - MedGotcha
Lauren Boebert admits to sex with staffer before midterms?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 2 MEDIUMResolverWording4.5¢−1¢ 7d7 daysRange 4.5–5.5¢ - MedGotcha
Will the Democratic Party win the MI-03 House seat?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMResolverTiming94.95¢−0.45¢ 7d7 daysRange 94.15–95.65¢