Will the Democratic Party win the PA-16 House seat?
Current price
3.9¢
+0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.9%
$32.8K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on which party wins the 2026 midterm election for Pennsylvania's 16th congressional district. The rules provide clear fallback criteria for non-major party candidates based on expressed caucusing intent. Resolution primarily relies on a consensus of credible reporting, which leaves some latitude to the decider to determine when reporting is definitive, though official Federal Election Commission reporting serves as a formal backstop if results are disputed. Election calls and certifications can take several days or weeks, introducing standard timing delays associated with official vote counts.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party candidate wins the U.S. House of Representatives seat for Pennsylvania's 16th Congressional District in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the candidate affiliated with the Democratic Party wins the PA-16 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The market resolves to No if a candidate from another party wins. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation, or by their most recently expressed intent to caucus if they lack a ballot-listed Democratic or Republican affiliation. Outcome determination is made by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Federal Election Commission serving as the sole source if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Midterm elections: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source in case of ambiguity.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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