Will the Democratic Party win the MI-03 House seat?
Current price
95.35¢
−0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 95.35%
$41.3K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the party winning Michigan's 3rd congressional district in the 2026 midterms. The primary resolution mechanism relies on a consensus of credible reporting, which leaves room for interpretation regarding when a consensus is reached, though the Federal Election Commission serves as an official fallback in case of ambiguity. There is minor timing risk because party affiliation and caucus intent are evaluated only after all national House elections are conclusively called, which could delay final resolution if other races face prolonged recounts.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party candidate wins the U.S. House of Representatives seat for Michigan's 3rd congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a major party affiliation on the ballot are assigned based on their most recently expressed caucus intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the MI-03 House seat is affiliated with the Democratic Party. Candidates without a Democratic or Republican ballot affiliation count as Democrats if they most recently expressed intent to caucus with the Democratic Party when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. The market resolves No if another party wins the seat. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Federal Election Commission serving as the sole source if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Election day: — The 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source if there is ambiguity.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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