Will the Democratic Party win the KY-06 House seat?
Current price
34.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 34.5%
$33.9K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This market resolves on the winning candidate's party affiliation for Kentucky's 6th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. The rules primarily rely on a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission reporting serving as a backstop in ambiguous cases. A notable timing factor is that party affiliation for non-major party candidates is evaluated when all nationwide House races are conclusively called, which could delay resolution if other districts face prolonged recounts or legal challenges.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a candidate affiliated with the Democratic Party wins the Kentucky Congressional District 6 seat in the 2026 U.S. House midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the KY-06 House seat is affiliated with the Democratic Party on the ballot, or if unaffiliated with either major party, has most recently expressed intent to caucus with Democrats when all 2026 House races are called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with the Republican Party or any other non-Democratic affiliation under the same criteria. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission results if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — The date the midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source in case of ambiguity.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.