Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by October 31?
Current price
2.85¢
Implied probability 2.85%
$1.5K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official diplomatic repository or international body like the IAEA, giving the decider significant latitude to interpret whether statements qualify. The rules provide helpful clarifications—specifying that agreements to merely cap or limit enrichment levels do not qualify, while non-finalized preconditions or temporary pauses do count. However, in complex diplomatic negotiations, discerning an explicit commitment to end all enrichment from nuanced conditional statements or partial halts requires subjective evaluation of reporting.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Iran publicly agrees to end all uranium enrichment by October 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying actions include an official pledge made unilaterally or as part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel, regardless of when it takes effect. Agreements ending enrichment for any duration or as a precondition to a broader peace process qualify, even if not finalized. Agreements that merely cap or limit enrichment levels, such as staying below weapons-grade thresholds, do not qualify. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — The deadline by which Iran must publicly agree to end all enrichment.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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