Will the Democratic Party win the CA-41 House seat?
Current price
95.6¢
−0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 95.6%
$10.7K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the outcome of the 2026 election for California's 41st congressional district. Initial resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, which leaves room for interpretation regarding which media calls count, but it includes a clear fallback to official results reported by the Federal Election Commission. California elections frequently take days or weeks to count mail-in ballots, which may prolong resolution, particularly if official government certification or an FEC report is ultimately required. The rules also define how to treat independent or third-party candidates by looking to caucus declarations once all House races are called, though this edge case is straightforward for standard major-party nominees.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-41 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party will win the California's 41st congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the CA-41 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party. Candidates without a ballot-listed Democratic or Republican affiliation are counted based on the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with when all 2026 House races are called. The market resolves No if a candidate from another party wins. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, falling back to official results from the Federal Election Commission if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- 2026 midterm elections: — Date of the midterm election.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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