Geopolitics markets

226 live Polymarket markets in 130 events

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MedGotcha
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
Closes Jan 1, 2027
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUM
ResolverWording
6¢±0¢ 7d
7 daysRange 5.5–7.5¢
High tradability$9.4K 24h vol
MedGotcha
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
Closes Jan 1, 2027
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH
Resolver
3.85¢−1.65¢ 7d
7 daysRange 3.05–5.5¢
High tradability$9.3K 24h vol
MedGotcha
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
Closes Jan 1, 2027
RESOLUTION RISKS · 2 MEDIUM
ResolverExceptions
6.5¢+1¢ 7d
7 daysRange 5.5–7¢
High tradability$8.1K 24h vol
MedGotcha
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?
Closes Oct 31
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUM
ResolverExceptions
95.5¢+16¢ 7d
7 daysRange 79.5–95.5¢
High tradability$7.5K 24h vol
EVENT · 14 OUTCOMES
Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei87%▼ 1 No Head of State4%±0 Reza Pahlavi2%▼ 1 Alireza Arafi2%±0 Hassan Rouhani1%±0
+9 more outcomesView event →
$7.3K 24h vol · all outcomesCloses Dec 31
MedGotcha
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Closes Jan 1, 2027
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUM
ResolverWording
6.5¢+2¢ 7d
7 daysRange 4.5–10.5¢
High tradability$5.9K 24h vol
MedGotcha
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
Closes Jan 1, 2027
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUM
ResolverWording
2.4¢−0.4¢ 7d
7 daysRange 2.35–2.9¢
High tradability$5.9K 24h vol
MedGotcha
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
Closes Jan 1, 2027
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 2 MEDIUM
ResolverWordingExceptions
24.5¢−3¢ 7d
7 daysRange 22.5–29.5¢
Med tradability$5.6K 24h vol
MedGotcha
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Closes Jan 1, 2027
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUM
ResolverWording
4.5¢±0¢ 7d
7 daysRange 4.5–7.5¢
High tradability$3.6K 24h vol
EVENT · 12 OUTCOMES
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
No meeting before 202796%±0 US2%▲ 1 Switzerland1%±0 Qatar / UAE1%±0 China<1%±0
+7 more outcomesView event →
$3.5K 24h vol · all outcomesCloses Jan 1, 2027
MedGotcha
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
Closes Jul 1, 2027
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 2 MEDIUM
ResolverWordingExceptions
5.5¢−2¢ 7d
7 daysRange 5.5–7.5¢
High tradability$3.5K 24h vol
MedGotcha
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
Closes Jan 1, 2027
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH
Resolver
3.15¢−0.1¢ 7d
7 daysRange 3.15–3.55¢
High tradability$3.4K 24h vol
EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)
December 3125%±0 October 318%▼ 2
Change in points, 24hView event →
December 31 · Since Oct 14Range 24–27%
$3.2K 24h vol · all outcomesCloses Nov 1
Can'tGotcha
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
Closes Dec 31
No resolution source named
83¢+3¢ 7d
7 daysRange 79.5–83.5¢
Med tradability$3.1K 24h vol
MedGotcha
BIG MOVE · ▲ 15 PTS
Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 2 MEDIUM
ResolverExceptions
98.35¢+15.4¢ 7d
7 daysRange 81.05–98.4¢ · explanation pending
Closes Jan 1, 2027High tradability$2.9K 24h vol
MedGotcha
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?
Closes Nov 1
RESOLUTION RISKS · 2 MEDIUM
ResolverWording
5.15¢−18.8¢ 7d
7 daysRange 4.35–25.35¢
High tradability$2.9K 24h vol
LowGotcha
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?
Closes Nov 1
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUM
Resolver
3.85¢−3.65¢ 7d
7 daysRange 3.8–7.5¢
High tradability$2.8K 24h vol
LowGotcha
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
Closes Jan 1, 2027
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUM
Resolver
6.15¢+0.5¢ 7d
7 daysRange 4.35–6.35¢
Med tradability$2.7K 24h vol
MedGotcha
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?
Closes Jan 1, 2027
RESOLUTION RISKS · 3 MEDIUM
ResolverWordingExceptions
2.1¢−1.25¢ 7d
7 daysRange 2.05–4.65¢
High tradability$2.7K 24h vol
LowGotcha
Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by October 31, 2026?
Closes Nov 1
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUM
Resolver
1.3¢−0.7¢ 7d
7 daysRange 1–3.85¢
Med tradability$2.6K 24h vol
LowGotcha
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?
Closes Jan 1, 2027
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUM
Resolver
31.5¢+2.5¢ 7d
7 daysRange 27.5–33.5¢
Med tradability$2.5K 24h vol
MedGotcha
Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?
Closes Jan 1, 2027
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUM
ResolverWording
26¢+0.5¢ since Oct 16
Since Oct 16Range 25.5–26.5¢
High tradability$2.4K 24h vol
MedGotcha
BIG MOVE · ▼ 13 PTS
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUM
ResolverWording
33.5¢+2¢ 24h
WHY IT MOVED · NEWS“Zelenskiy Slams Trump's Russia Diesel Deal as Ukraine Peace Talks Stall”econotimes.com · 16 Oct
Closes Jan 1, 2027Med tradability$2.2K 24h vol
MedGotcha
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
Closes Jan 1, 2027
RESOLUTION RISKS · 2 MEDIUM
ResolverWording
6.5¢+1¢ 7d
7 daysRange 5.5–6.5¢
Med tradability$1.5K 24h vol
LowGotcha
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
Closes Jan 1, 2027
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUM
Resolver
4.9¢−0.05¢ 7d
7 daysRange 4.65–5.3¢
Med tradability$1.4K 24h vol
MedGotcha
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
Closes Jan 1, 2027
RESOLUTION RISKS · 2 HIGH · 1 MEDIUM
ResolverExceptionsWording
2.85¢−1.6¢ 7d
7 daysRange 2.8–4.85¢
High tradability$1.1K 24h vol
LowGotcha
Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?
Closes Nov 1
No resolution risks flagged4 checks
59¢−0.5¢ 7d
7 daysRange 52.5–61¢
Med tradability$876.7 24h vol
LowGotcha
Modi out by December 31, 2026?
Closes Jan 1, 2027
RESOLUTION RISKS · 2 MEDIUM
ResolverExceptions
3.55¢−0.8¢ 7d
7 daysRange 3.1–5.3¢
High tradability$866.1 24h vol
MedGotcha
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?
Closes Jan 1, 2027
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUM
ResolverWording
3.75¢−1.5¢ 7d
7 daysRange 3.6–5.25¢
High tradability$861.7 24h vol
MedGotcha
Modi out by June 30, 2027?
Closes Jul 1, 2027
RESOLUTION RISKS · 3 MEDIUM
ResolverWordingExceptions
10.5¢−6¢ 7d
7 daysRange 7.5–16.5¢
High tradability$638.8 24h vol
MedGotcha
Will Venezuela become 51st state?
Closes Jan 1, 2027
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 2 MEDIUM
ExceptionsResolverWording
2¢−0.05¢ 7d
7 daysRange 1.95–2.25¢
High tradability$576.4 24h vol
MedGotcha
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?
Closes Jan 1, 2027
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUM
ResolverWording
3.2¢−0.3¢ 7d
7 daysRange 2.45–3.85¢
Med tradability$574.9 24h vol
MedGotcha
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Closes Jan 1, 2027
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 2 MEDIUM
ResolverWordingExceptions
6.5¢−2¢ 7d
7 daysRange 6.5–8.5¢
Med tradability$561 24h vol
MedGotcha
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026?
Closes Jan 1, 2027
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH
Resolver
6¢+1¢ 7d
7 daysRange 4–6¢
Med tradability$505 24h vol
MedGotcha
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
Closes Jan 1, 2027
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 2 MEDIUM
ResolverWordingExceptions
7.5¢−1¢ 7d
7 daysRange 7.5–8.5¢
High tradability$317 24h vol
MedGotcha
China x Japan military clash before 2027?
Closes Jan 1, 2027
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 2 MEDIUM
ResolverWordingExceptions
4.2¢+0.4¢ 7d
7 daysRange 3.45–5¢
High tradability$218.5 24h vol
MedGotcha
Ukraine coup attempt by December 31, 2026?
Closes Jan 1, 2027
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 2 MEDIUM
ResolverWordingExceptions
5.4¢+0.75¢ 7d
7 daysRange 4.5–6.7¢
Med tradability$159.2 24h vol
LowGotcha
US military draft authorized in 2026?
Closes Jan 1, 2027
No resolution risks flagged4 checks
4¢+0.5¢ 7d
7 daysRange 3.5–4.1¢
High tradability$155.9 24h vol
MedGotcha
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?
Closes Jan 1, 2027
RESOLUTION RISKS · 3 MEDIUM
ResolverWordingExceptions
3.55¢±0¢ 7d
7 daysRange 3.5–3.7¢
High tradability$145.5 24h vol
LowGotcha
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?
Closes Apr 1, 2028
No resolution risks flagged4 checks
8.5¢±0¢ since Oct 14
Since Oct 14Flat at 8.5¢
High tradability$134 24h vol
LowGotcha
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
Closes Jan 1, 2027
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH
Resolver
2.3¢−0.25¢ 7d
7 daysRange 1.95–2.7¢
Med tradability$125.8 24h vol
MedGotcha
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?
Closes Jan 1, 2027
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUM
ResolverWording
4.5¢−1¢ 7d
7 daysRange 4.5–5.5¢
Med tradability$105.7 24h vol
MedGotcha
Will Putin and Zelenskyy not meet by December 31, 2027?
Closes Jan 1, 2028
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUM
ResolverExceptions
82.5¢±0¢ 7d
7 daysFlat at 82.5¢
Med tradability$94.9 24h vol
HighGotcha
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?
Closes Jan 1, 2027
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUM
ExceptionsResolver
9.5¢+1.5¢ 7d
7 daysRange 7.5–9.5¢
Med tradability$75.4 24h vol
MedGotcha
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?
Closes Jan 1, 2027
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 2 MEDIUM
ResolverWordingExceptions
5.1¢+0.6¢ 7d
7 daysRange 4.15–5.75¢
Med tradability$72.5 24h vol
MedGotcha
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?
Closes Jan 1, 2027
RESOLUTION RISKS · 3 MEDIUM
ResolverWordingExceptions
1.5¢−0.1¢ 7d
7 daysRange 1.5–1.75¢
High tradability$67.3 24h vol
LowGotcha
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?
Closes Jan 1, 2027
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH
Resolver
2.65¢+0.2¢ 7d
7 daysRange 2.45–2.65¢
High tradability$50.9 24h vol
MedGotcha
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
Closes Jan 1, 2027
RESOLUTION RISKS · 2 MEDIUM
ResolverExceptions
1.5¢−0.95¢ 7d
7 daysRange 1.1–2.7¢
Med tradability$47.6 24h vol

Geopolitics markets

Will Russia invade another country in 2026?

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?

Iran leader end of 2026?

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31?

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?

Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by October 31, 2026?

Iran full airspace closure by December 31?

Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?

Modi out by June 30, 2027?

Will Venezuela become 51st state?

Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026?

Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

Ukraine coup attempt by December 31, 2026?

US military draft authorized in 2026?

Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?

Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?

Will Putin and Zelenskyy not meet by December 31, 2027?

Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?

Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?