Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?
Current price
5.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 5.05%
$169.3K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves to Yes if Ukraine publicly pledges or agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026. Participants should note that the rules define qualifying agreements very broadly: any temporary commitment (such as a 10-year pause) or non-finalized precondition to a broader peace framework qualifies, regardless of whether it ever takes formal effect. While official Ukrainian announcements serve as the primary source, the resolution can also rely on an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, which leaves room for deciders to interpret whether reported diplomatic concessions meet the criteria before a formal treaty is ratified.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify). An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO before 2027. The market resolves based on official announcements or a consensus of credible reporting, even if the agreement is part of a larger peace process or not yet finalized.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This includes an official pledge by Ukraine, whether it is a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date qualifies, regardless of when it goes into effect. An agreement not to join NATO for any amount of time, such as 10 years, will count. An agreement not to join NATO as a precondition of a peace process or deal also qualifies, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The market resolves No if Ukraine does not make such a public agreement by the specified deadline. The primary resolution source is an official announcement by Ukraine. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also be used for resolution.
Key dates
- Agreement Deadline: — Ukraine must agree not to join NATO by this date and time (ET).
Resolution source
official announcement by the Ukraine
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
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