US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
Current price
3.75¢
+0.65¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.75%
$2.5M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The title omits the specific target year, but the rules clarify the deadline is December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market establishes clear standards for what counts as possession, requiring physical custody or control rather than prospective deals or future transfer agreements. However, resolution allows for determination via a widespread consensus of credible reporting if official government confirmation is not published. This gives resolving authorities latitude to interpret media reports and evaluate journalistic consensus on potentially covert or sensitive national security matters.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the United States obtains physical custody or control of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by the end of 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained physical custody or control of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A widespread consensus of credible reporting confirming possession also qualifies for Yes. Possession can occur within US territory or elsewhere via any means, including seizure or surrender, but future commitments or agreements do not qualify. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. Resolution is determined by official US government information or credible reporting consensus.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Official information from the government of the United States, or a widespread consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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