Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
Current price
7.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 7.5%
$478.3K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution relies entirely on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official government or military database, leaving room for interpretation regarding what constitutes consensus. While the rules outline specific qualifying actions like direct gunfire or missile strikes, they exclude several forms of military friction, including warning shots, airspace incursions, missile splashdowns in territorial waters, and fire into uninhabited areas. In maritime encounters, distinguishing between intentional ramming that causes significant damage versus minor scrapes or accidental contact requires subjective judgment. Additionally, incidents must involve direct official military forces of both nations, meaning proxy skirmishes or unacknowledged cross-border strikes in third countries like Syria could create disputes over attribution.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a direct military clash or encounter involving the use of force occurs between the armed forces of Israel and Turkey before 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if an incident involving the use of force—such as missile strikes, artillery fire, gunfire exchanges, or direct military engagement—occurs between Israeli and Turkish military forces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Intentional ship ramming counts toward Yes only if it sinks a military vessel or causes significant damage like a hull breach, whereas minor damage such as scrapes or dents does not count. Non-violent actions, warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, and missiles that merely pass through airspace or land in territorial waters do not qualify for Yes. The market resolves to No if no qualifying military encounter occurs by the deadline. A consensus of credible reporting decides the resolution.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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