Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Current price
6.5¢
−1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 6.5%
$3.6M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on whether the United States initiates a military offensive intended to establish control over Cuban land territory before the end of 2026. Determining whether an action qualifies requires evaluating military intent—specifically distinguishing between limited airstrikes or naval operations and an operation designed to seize land. The rules clarify that existing de facto control at the time of creation defines sovereign territory, which excludes existing installations like Guantanamo Bay from counting as Cuban territory for an invasion trigger. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official government declaration or specific named registry, leaving judgment to the decider in marginal or contested military scenarios.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the United States launches a military offensive to take control of Cuban land territory by the end of 2026, with sovereignty defined by de facto control at market creation.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as of market creation counts as that country's sovereign territory. The market resolves to No if no such military offensive occurs by the deadline. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible sources.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Consensus of credible sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
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