PolymarketCloses · in 73 daysPart of Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...? →

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?

Current price

33.5¢

+2¢ · 24h

Implied probability 33.5%
$366.5K total volume · YES/NO

7-day range 29–53.5¢

Medium gotcha risk

Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment

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This market resolves based on whether an official in-person or mediator-facilitated diplomatic meeting takes place between Russian and Ukrainian representatives to discuss broader peace terms, ceasefires, or substantive de-escalation before the deadline. While the rules specifically exclude phone calls, chance encounters, and purely humanitarian discussions, judging whether behind-the-scenes or mediated contacts meet the threshold for authorized peace talks relies heavily on decider interpretation. Furthermore, resolution relies on official government statements or a consensus of credible media reporting rather than a single definitive registry, leaving significant room for discretion when classifying informal or backchannel talks.

Wording ambiguity
Med
Source discretion
High
Timing risk
Low
Exceptional clauses
Low

Liquidity

Medium tradability

Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.

Book depth $5.1K within 5¢ of mid
Price history range

Price history

Market price
31¢32¢33¢34¢18:3602:3510:3318:31
20¢30¢40¢50¢60¢Oct 12Oct 15Oct 17Oct 19
20¢40¢60¢80¢Aug 3Aug 29Sep 24Oct 19

Why it moved

Down 13 points · 16 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC

News

Cited news

The market fell from 45% to 36%. A likely driver was reporting by econotimes.com that peace talks had stalled amid Zelenskiy's criticism of a diesel deal, alongside indiatimes.com reporting Putin stating a planned security zone would not be part of future peace talks.

  • Largest hourly change: 20:00 UTC, 42% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 76 days after the move hour.

AI-generated · 17 Oct 2026, 04:52 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine aimed at discussing a ceasefire, peace agreement, or other substantive de-escalation of the ongoing conflict by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Meetings or talks limited to humanitarian issues will not qualify unless they also include substantive negotiation regarding broader Russia-Ukraine peace terms, such as a ceasefire, peace agreement, territorial issues, security guarantees, or similar. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Rules history

Rules history is not displayed yet.

Market explained

This market measures whether official representatives of Russia and Ukraine hold an in-person diplomatic meeting to discuss a ceasefire, peace agreement, or substantive de-escalation by December 31, 2026.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if an authorized in-person diplomatic meeting occurs between official representatives of Russia and Ukraine—either directly or via designated mediators—to discuss a ceasefire, peace agreement, or substantive conflict de-escalation by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The meeting must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Purely humanitarian talks, brief greetings, chance encounters, and remote meetings or phone calls do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no qualifying meeting takes place by the deadline. Official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting will decide resolution.

Key dates

  • Resolution deadline: — Qualifying peace talks must occur by 11:59 PM ET on this date.

Resolution source

Official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

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