Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?
Current price
5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 5%
$415.1K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single definitive authority or official declaration, requiring the resolver to evaluate whether media reports agree. Determining whether an action constitutes an offensive intended to establish territorial control—especially concerning hybrid or grey zone actions by unmarked personnel—involves subjective interpretation. Additionally, the rules fix the territorial baseline as of May 28, 2025, rather than at market creation or at the time of the event, which could create nuance regarding border changes prior to that date.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries. Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Russia will launch a military offensive to gain control of territory in any NATO country by December 31, 2026. A notable detail is that sovereign territory is defined based on de facto control as of May 28, 2025, and qualifying actions include confirmed Russian hybrid or grey-zone operations.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying actions include hybrid or grey zone operations by unmarked personnel if they are confirmed as Russian operatives and intended to establish de facto territorial control. Sovereign territory is determined by de facto control held by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025. The market resolves to No otherwise. A consensus of credible sources decides the outcome.
Key dates
- Baseline de facto control date: — Land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia on this date is considered sovereign territory
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline is 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
A consensus of credible sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.