Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?
Current price
3.55¢
−0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.55%
$649.5K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves to affirmative if the president leaves office, but also triggers early on a mere announcement of resignation or removal, even if the effective date of departure is scheduled for after the deadline. Additionally, the rules include broader conditions such as being detained, effectively removed, or permanently prevented from fulfilling duties, which require interpretation if political or health crises arise without a formal transition. While official government communications serve as the primary source, the decider may also rely on a consensus of credible reporting, leaving room for judgement in ambiguous political scenarios.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye by December 31, 2026. Notably, an advance announcement of his resignation or removal triggers resolution immediately, regardless of when it officially takes effect, as does being detained or permanently prevented from performing his duties.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time before the market end date. An announcement of his resignation or removal made before the deadline immediately triggers a Yes resolution, regardless of when the change takes effect. Being detained, effectively removed, or permanently prevented from fulfilling presidential duties within the timeframe also qualifies for Yes. The market resolves to No if none of these conditions are met. Resolution is determined using official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- End date: — End of the evaluation period (ET).
Resolution source
Official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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