Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?
Current price
3.85¢
−1.15¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.85%
$852.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide detailed definitions for what constitutes an official Israeli government statement, listing specific qualified roles such as the Prime Minister or Cabinet Ministers while explicitly excluding individual lawmakers speaking in personal capacities. Qualifying proxy groups are enumerated alongside clear requirements for unnamed proxies or unlisted entities. Crucially, the text distinguishes direct operational involvement from mere ideological inspiration, giving concrete examples of statements that do not count. The resolution deadline is fixed, and while secondary resolution may rely on a consensus of credible reporting, the core criteria are strictly anchored to official public records and on-the-record statements with an explicit clause noting that subsequent retractions do not alter a positive resolution.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
On September 30, 2026, FlyDubai flight FZ1073 from Dubai to Tel Aviv diverted to Saudi Arabia following an incident in the cockpit in which the co-pilot allegedly stabbed the captain. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/diverted-flydubai-flight-israel-was-not-hijacking-incident-israeli-prime-2026-09-30/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli national government, or an authorized representative of the Israeli national government, publicly announces that Iran or its affiliated groups deliberately caused this incident, by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A public announcement refers to an on-the-record statement issued by the Israeli national government or by its authorized representatives acting in an official capacity on behalf of the Israeli national government. A statement or press release issued by the Israeli national government or any of its agencies will qualify. A Prime Minister or Cabinet Minister’s public statements will always be considered to be issued on-the-record in a capacity representing the Israeli national government for purposes of this market. A statement from a lawmaker or other government official speaking in their own capacity or on behalf of a party not in government will not alone qualify. For purposes of this market, an affiliated group of Iran is: any organization directly controlled by Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Houthis ("Ansar Allah"), Kata'ib Hezbollah, Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, Badr Organization, and Harakat al-Nujaba. An unlisted group will only qualify if the Israeli claim itself, or accompanying statements or releases, specifies that the group is a proxy of or otherwise is controlled or directed by Iran. A general statement that it was conducted by an Iranian proxy will also qualify, even if no group is named. Such a statement will be considered to claim that Iran or its affiliated groups deliberately caused the incident if it explicitly claims that Iran or an affiliated group ordered, carried out, planned, or otherwise directly aided or coordinated the incident. Statements that attribute only inspiration or ideological influence (e.g., "this would not have happened if Iran didn't radicalize terrorists," "the co-pilot was influenced by Hamas' ideas") will not qualify. Once a qualifying announcement has been made, no subsequent walkback or retraction will be relevant for purposes of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli national government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Israeli national government publicly accuses Iran or its affiliated proxy groups of deliberately causing the September 30, 2026 FlyDubai cockpit stabbing incident by October 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Israeli national government or an authorized representative publicly announces by the deadline that Iran or its affiliated groups deliberately caused the incident by ordering, carrying out, planning, aiding, or coordinating it. Prime Minister or Cabinet Minister statements qualify, but lawmakers speaking in a personal capacity do not. Statements attributing only ideological influence or inspiration do not qualify. Subsequent retractions are disregarded. The market resolves to No if no qualifying announcement is made by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Resolution relies on official Israeli government statements or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Incident date: — FlyDubai flight FZ1073 diverted after an alleged cockpit stabbing.
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline for a qualifying Israeli government announcement at 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Official information from the Israeli national government, or a consensus of credible reporting
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