China x Japan military clash before 2027?
Current price
4.15¢
+0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.15%
$1.4M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official government or international body finding, requiring judgment over media reports of skirmishes. Position holders should note the specific branch distinction: the China Coast Guard counts as military force, but the Japan Coast Guard does not, meaning clashes involving only the Japan Coast Guard and Chinese forces will not trigger a positive resolution unless Japanese Self-Defense Forces are directly involved. Additionally, non-violent actions such as warning shots or missile tests crossing airspace are explicitly excluded, and ship rammings require proof of intentionality and significant damage such as a punctured hull rather than minor dents or scrapes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a military encounter involving the use of force occurs between the military forces of China and Japan within the designated timeframe. Notably, the China Coast Guard is classified as part of the military for this market, while the Japan Coast Guard is not.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a direct military encounter involving the use of force occurs between Chinese and Japanese military forces between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying events include missile strikes, artillery fire, gunfire exchanges, direct military engagement, or intentional ship ramming that sinks a military ship or causes significant damage such as a hole in the hull. The China Coast Guard counts as military, whereas the Japan Coast Guard does not. Warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, missile tests crossing airspace or landing in territorial waters, and minor ramming damage like scrapes or dents do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no such qualifying encounter takes place. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Start Date: — Beginning of the evaluation window
- End Date: — Market evaluation window closes at 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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