US military draft authorized in 2026?
Current price
4¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4%
$544.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market clearly specifies the required trigger: formal federal legislation passed by Congress and enacted into law that authorizes actual induction or conscription into the armed forces by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. It explicitly clarifies that mere administrative or registration modifications do not qualify. Official United States government records serve as the primary source of truth, leaving minimal room for subjective interpretation or unexpected edge-case outcomes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market resolves on whether the United States authorizes a military draft through legislation enacted by the end of 2026. The market specifically looks for laws that enable personnel induction into the armed forces, not just changes to Selective Service registration.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if legislation is passed by both houses of the US Congress and signed into law by the President, or otherwise enacted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This legislation must authorize the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through the activation of the Selective Service System or otherwise establish a military draft. Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction or conscription will not qualify. Otherwise, the market resolves No. The primary resolution source is official information from the United States federal government, but a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key dates
- Market close date: — Legislation must be enacted by this date and time.
Resolution source
official information from the United States federal government
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
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