Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
Current price
6.5¢
+1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 6.5%
$3.6M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Pay close attention to the early resolution rule regarding announcements. The market resolves to Yes immediately upon an announcement of Zelenskyy's resignation or removal, even if the actual departure is scheduled to take effect after the market's end date. This means an announced future exit would trigger an affirmative resolution before he actually leaves office. For verification, the deciders rely primarily on official statements from Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian government, but they also have the discretion to resolve based on a consensus of credible media reporting.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Volodymyr Zelenskyy ceases to be President of Ukraine for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Volodymyr Zelenskyy's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Volodymyr Zelenskyy leaves office as President of Ukraine by the end of 2026. Notably, an advance announcement of his resignation or removal triggers an immediate Yes resolution regardless of when it takes effect.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Volodymyr Zelenskyy ceases to be President of Ukraine for any period of time between market creation and the specified end date. It also resolves immediately to Yes if an announcement of his resignation or removal is made before the end date, regardless of when that resignation or removal officially takes effect. The market resolves to No otherwise. Resolution is determined using official information from Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian government, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- End date: — The market evaluates events occurring up to the specified end date in 2026 (ET).
Resolution source
Official information from Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the government of Ukraine, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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