Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
Current price
6.25¢
+0.2¢ · 24h
Implied probability 6.25%
$451.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria closely match the market title, requiring an official announcement establishing diplomatic relations from both governments by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Participants should note that partial normalization steps, such as opening airspace, economic pacts, or security agreements, would not trigger a positive resolution unless full diplomatic relations are officially announced. Official government communications serve as the primary decider, though backup reliance on a consensus of credible reporting leaves some latitude for interpreting news coverage if official statements are informal or disputed.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Israel and Saudi Arabia establish formal diplomatic ties before 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if both Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to No if this condition is not met by the deadline. The resolution relies primarily on official information from Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, with a consensus of credible reporting serving as a secondary basis.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline for both nations to officially announce diplomatic relations.
Resolution source
Official information from Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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