Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by October 31, 2026?
Current price
1.3¢
−0.4¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.3%
$43.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The rules clearly specify what constitutes a loss of control across the four named islands, explicitly requiring another entity to establish actual governmental or military control. Edge cases like temporary raids, offshore blockades, unverified claims, or contested situations are expressly excluded and default to a negative resolution. While resolution relies on official statements and a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single definitive registry, the criteria are standard and align closely with what a reader would expect from the headline question.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island. "No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Iran loses primary governmental or military control over at least one of four specified islands (Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz, or Kharg Island) to another entity by October 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island, or Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control by October 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Changes of control under a negotiated settlement, ceasefire, surrender, or transfer agreement qualify once actual control is established. The market resolves to No if Iran maintains control, or if control is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the deadline. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, offshore naval presence, temporary disruptions, or unverified announcements do not qualify. Official statements from relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting, will decide the outcome.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline is 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.