Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?
Current price
8.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 8.5%
$7.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market features clear and unambiguous resolution mechanics. It relies directly on the official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee, leaving virtually no room for subjective interpretation or source discretion. Joint awards are explicitly accounted for, and a definitive fallback expiration date of March 31, 2028, ensures a clear resolution if no announcement occurs.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual or organization is awarded the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the prize is awarded jointly, each listed individual or organization named among the recipients will resolve to "Yes". This market is not limited to a single winner. If no official announcement regarding the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Donald Trump is awarded the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize. It resolves to Yes even if the prize is awarded jointly among multiple recipients.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump is awarded the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize, including if the prize is awarded jointly with other recipients. The market resolves to No if he is not awarded the prize, or if no official announcement regarding the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize is made by March 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source is the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Key dates
- Announcement cut-off date: — Market resolves to No if no announcement has been made by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
First official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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