China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
Current price
24.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 24.5%
$543.3K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market establishes specific boundaries for what qualifies as a clash, including requiring direct military engagement or intentional ship ramming that causes severe structural damage like a breached hull rather than scrapes or dents. A critical distinction is that while the China Coast Guard is classified as military, the Philippine Coast Guard is explicitly excluded, meaning common maritime skirmishes strictly between the two coast guards will not trigger a positive resolution unless official Philippine armed forces are directly engaged. Additionally, resolution relies on an open consensus of credible news reporting rather than an official government or defense registry, leaving the determination of damage severity and force attribution to broad media interpretation.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a direct military clash will occur between the military forces of China and the Philippines before 2027. A key distinction is that the China Coast Guard is classified as military, whereas the Philippine Coast Guard is not.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a military encounter involving the use of force occurs between the military forces of China and the Philippines by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying encounters include melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchanges of gunfire, or other direct engagements. Intentional ship ramming qualifies only if it causes significant damage, such as a hole in the hull, or the sinking of a military ship; minor damage like scrapes or dents does not count. Non-violent actions, including warning shots, artillery into uninhabited areas, and missile launches passing through airspace or landing in territorial waters, do not qualify. The China Coast Guard counts as military force, while the Philippine Coast Guard does not. The market resolves to No if no qualifying encounter occurs by the deadline. A consensus of credible reporting decides the resolution.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — The military clash must occur on or before this date and time (11:59 PM ET).
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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