Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
Current price
2.25¢
+0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.25%
$862.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market establishes a strict and clear standard for resolution, requiring a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress under Article I, Section 8 and signed into law. It explicitly rules out Authorizations for the Use of Military Force (AUMFs), executive orders, and unilateral military actions, which prevents confusion in the event of major hostilities that fall short of a formal declaration. The outcome relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a specified official legislative record or government register, but congressional enactments of this nature are universally documented and unambiguous in practice.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress by December 31, 2026. Standard military actions, executive orders, and Authorizations for Use of Military Force (AUMFs) do not qualify on their own.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress enacted and signed into law under Article I, Section 8 between market creation and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal congressional declaration of war. The market resolves to No if a formal declaration of war is not enacted by the deadline. The outcome is decided by a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
A clear consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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