Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
Current price
2.35¢
−0.35¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.35%
$11.8M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution relies on determining whether someone has achieved de facto head of state authority based on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single official registry or government announcement. While the rules provide detailed guidance distinguishing real governing control from ceremonial, symbolic, or exile status, judging whether someone effectively controls the armed forces and state apparatus during a potential political transition inherently involves substantial discretion by whoever resolves the market.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify. If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Reza Pahlavi becomes the de facto head of state exercising primary governing authority over Iran by the end of 2026. Resolution depends on practical domestic control over state institutions and armed forces rather than formal constitutional titles or international recognition.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying authority requires primary governing power, including effective control over armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decisions, regardless of formal title or foreign recognition. Symbolic leadership, exile status without domestic authority, or ceremonial roles without governing control do not qualify. The market resolves to No if he does not meet these criteria by the deadline. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline for Reza Pahlavi to de facto hold and exercise the powers of the head of state of Iran.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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