Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
Current price
3.15¢
−0.3¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.15%
$2.6M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The market clearly defines what qualifies as a visit by requiring physical entry onto Iran's terrestrial territory while explicitly excluding airspace and maritime territory. The question title does not specify a year, but the rules state the deadline is December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single official registry or government border control source, leaving it to the decider to determine whether news reports establish that physical land entry occurred.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Reza Pahlavi physically enters Iran by December 31, 2026. Resolution specifically requires entering terrestrial territory, meaning presence in Iranian airspace or maritime territory is excluded.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. For a Yes resolution, a visit is defined strictly as physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran, and entering Iranian airspace or maritime territory does not count. The market resolves to No if he does not physically enter terrestrial Iran by the deadline. A consensus of credible reporting serves as the primary resolution source.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Cutoff time (11:59 PM ET) for Reza Pahlavi to physically enter Iran.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.