Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?
Current price
2.15¢
−0.95¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.15%
$262.7K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The market explicitly separates the formal announcement from physical reality on the ground: an official Israeli announcement that all ground forces have withdrawn suffices for a positive resolution even if incursions continue or territory remains occupied. Additionally, the Shebaa Farms region is specifically excluded from being counted as Lebanese territory. Resolution primarily relies on official Israeli government statements but permits an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting as an alternative, leaving some room for interpretation if official statements are ambiguous or if media reports conflict regarding whether full withdrawal has occurred.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Israel announces the complete withdrawal of its ground forces from Lebanon by December 31, 2026. Uniquely, an official announcement of completed withdrawal is sufficient even if incursions continue or territory remains occupied, and the Shebaa Farms area is excluded from consideration.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Israel announces that it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of completed withdrawal suffices even if ground incursions continue or some Lebanese territory remains under Israeli control, but an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal does not count. The Shebaa Farms area is treated as Israeli territory and is excluded from consideration. The market resolves to No if no such qualifying announcement is made by the deadline. Resolution is determined primarily by information from the Israeli government, or secondarily by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming the withdrawal.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline for Israel to announce the withdrawal of all ground forces from Lebanon.
Resolution source
Information from the Israeli government, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.