Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31?
Current price
98.35¢
+3.95¢ · 24h
Implied probability 98.35%
$352.3K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The market resolves to Yes if the subject leaves office during the period, but it includes an important early resolution clause: an announcement of resignation or removal made prior to the deadline immediately resolves the market to Yes, even if the effective date of departure is scheduled for well after December 31. Official Romanian government announcements and statements from the official serve as primary resolution sources, though deciders may also rely on a consensus of credible media reporting as a secondary basis.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ilie Bolojan ceases to be Prime Minister of Romania for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Ilie Bolojan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Ilie Bolojan and the government of Romania; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Ilie Bolojan ceases to be Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, with an immediate resolution to Yes upon an announcement of his departure, regardless of the effective date.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Ilie Bolojan ceases to be Prime Minister of Romania for any period between market creation and December 31. An announcement of his resignation or removal before the end date will cause an immediate Yes resolution, even if the departure takes effect later. The market resolves No if Ilie Bolojan remains Prime Minister of Romania continuously until December 31. Official information from Ilie Bolojan and the Romanian government will be the primary resolution source. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used for resolution.
Key dates
- Market close date: — End of day, ET
Resolution source
official information from Ilie Bolojan and the government of Romania
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.